La Niña is Coming: What Southern California Outdoor Enthusiasts Can Expect This Year

If you’re an outdoor enthusiast in Southern California – your reading OutdoorSoCal, so guessing the answer is yes – you might want to keep a close eye on what’s brewing in the Pacific Ocean.

With La Niña conditions likely to take hold this fall, anyone headed into the outdoors could feel the impact of this tricky climate pattern.

The unpredictable nature of La Niña can make it both a blessing and a curse for outdoor enthusiasts, and whether you’re chasing waves or snow, it’s time to prepare for what’s ahead.

What Exactly Is La Niña?

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a climate phenomenon that swings between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases.

While El Niño is associated with warmer ocean waters and stormier winters in Southern California, La Niña tends to bring cooler waters and drier conditions. The shifting of ocean temperatures affects the jet stream, which in turn influences weather patterns across the globe.

In Southern California, this typically means less rain and more sunshine—a mixed bag depending on your outdoor passion.

Surfing in La Niña: Feast or Famine?

For surfers in Southern California, La Niña can be a bit of a gamble. While El Niño is famous for delivering massive winter swells, La Niña isn’t always a bust. In fact, some La Niña winters have produced some of the most memorable swells in recent history.

Take the 2022-2023 season, for example: despite being a La Niña year, it saw iconic big-wave breaks like the Eddie and Cortes Bank light up in epic fashion.

The main factor at play here is the jet stream. La Niña tends to push it farther north, which can lead to fewer and less consistent storms in the Southern Hemisphere—typically the primary source of winter swells for Southern California.

However, when storms do line up, they can deliver powerful, long-period swells, especially during late-season windows. Surfers who know when to watch the forecast can still score, but the waiting game may be longer this year.

Skiing and Snowboarding: Not Exactly Powder Paradise

La Niña winters are often a bummer for Southern California ski resorts. With the jet stream shifted north, the Sierra Nevada, Tahoe, and Pacific Northwest can see above-average snowfall while SoCal resorts like Big Bear and Mountain High are left high and dry.

The past few years, with La Niña in control, Southern California experienced below-average snowfall and fewer powder days, with many resorts relying heavily on snowmaking just to keep their runs open.

For those willing to travel, the story is brighter up north. If La Niña takes hold as predicted, ski trips to Tahoe or the Cascades might be in order. But if you’re sticking to SoCal, it could be a season of scraping by on man-made snow and praying for a rogue storm to drop a few inches here and there.

Camping, Mountain Biking, Rock Climbing Off-Roading: Dry, Dusty, and Open for Business

While La Niña might put a damper on your surf or snow adventures, it could be a golden opportunity for those who prefer hiking, camping, mountain biking, or off-roading.

Drier winters mean more access to backcountry roads, less mud on the trails, and fewer weather-related closures. For campers, this could mean extended seasons in some of Southern California’s high-altitude spots that might otherwise be buried under snow. Climbing crags tend to be drier.

That said, the dry conditions do come with some caveats. Increased fire risk is a big one. Southern California’s vegetation can dry out fast, and as we’ve seen in recent years, a dry winter followed by a hot summer can lead to explosive fire conditions by late summer and fall.

If you’re planning backcountry adventures, it’s crucial to stay up to date on fire restrictions and have a solid evacuation plan in place.

The Drought Factor: La Niña’s Unwanted Side Effect

Beyond the immediate impacts on outdoor recreation, La Niña’s dry conditions could also spell trouble for California’s ongoing struggle with drought. Over the past decade, some of the driest years on record have occurred during La Niña periods, leading to depleted reservoirs, stricter water restrictions, and worsening wildfire seasons.

The winter of 2022-2023 was an exception, delivering much-needed rain and snowpack despite being a La Niña year. But experts warn that we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance. La Niña typically brings below-average rainfall to Southern California, which can have long-term consequences for water supplies and agriculture.

While the state’s reservoirs have been replenished recently, a return to prolonged dry conditions could quickly undo that progress, especially if La Niña persists into the following year. Also, we may see campfire restrictions extended if the national forests stay dry and wildfire risk is high.

What to Watch For: Preparing for the Season Ahead

With the odds of La Niña developing this fall sitting at about 70%, it’s time for outdoor enthusiasts to start planning accordingly. Here’s what to keep in mind:

1. Surf Season: Be patient and flexible. The waves will come, but you might need to be more selective about your sessions.
2. Snow Sports: Look north for reliable snow. If you’re sticking to SoCal resorts, lower your powder day expectations and be prepared for lean conditions.
3. Camping and Off-Roading: Enjoy the extended access but stay fire-aware. Conditions could get dangerously dry.
4. Water Use: Even if it’s not directly related to your outdoor hobbies, keep an eye on drought conditions. Water conservation could become a bigger priority as the season progresses.

The Bottom Line

La Niña might not be every outdoor enthusiast’s best friend, but it’s not all doom and gloom. While surfers and skiers may need to recalibrate their expectations, those who thrive in drier conditions could find this winter perfect for getting outside. As always in Southern California, flexibility is key—nature has a way of keeping us on our toes, and this year will be no different.

Only one thing is certain: La Niña will never be as funny as El Niño.